The Fenestration and Glazing Industry Alliance just released its biannual U.S. market study, and the data paints a sobering picture for commercial envelope pros: non-residential spending is projected to decline through 2026, with meaningful recovery not expected until 2028. Here's what the segment-level numbers mean for spec writers, glazing contractors, and manufacturers.
A Sobering Snapshot for Commercial Fenestration
The Fenestration and Glazing Industry Alliance (FGIA) has released its 2026 Study of the U.S. Market for Windows, Doors and Skylights, the trade association's biannual deep-dive into residential and non-residential fenestration shipments. The report landed on May 18, and its top-line forecast confirms what many glazing contractors have been hearing in the field: the commercial side of the business is still contracting, and the recovery is further out than many had hoped.
According to FGIA, non-residential spending is expected to decline in 2026, with a recovery projected to begin in 2028. That's a longer trough than several earlier industry forecasts had suggested, and it has real implications for backlog planning, hiring decisions, and capital investment across the building envelope supply chain.
FGIA frames the slowdown as the product of converging pressures. As Marketing and Communications Director Angela Dickson put it, the updated study reflects how global geopolitical shifts, trade policy, AI, and energy regulations are intersecting with traditional industry drivers — and an upcoming June 9 webinar will examine those scenarios further, including the war in Iran, trade policies, and energy regulations.
Segment-Level Data: Where the Pressure Is Concentrated
The report's product-level breakdown is the most useful part for specifiers and contractors trying to read the market. Highlights include:
- Site-fabricated windows represent the largest non-residential market segment by vision area, at 27.7 percent of the overall non-residential glazing in 2025.
- Storefront systems follow closely at 26.1 percent, underscoring how much of the commercial glazing market is still concentrated in low- and mid-rise tenant work rather than high-rise curtain wall.
- Non-residential entry doors saw a 10 percent demand decline in 2025, though growth is projected from 2025 through 2027.
- Commercial unit skylights are down roughly 10 percent from 2023 levels, with typical unit sizes in the 22 to 25 square foot range — though FGIA notes sizes can vary dramatically.
The non-residential product data also includes a breakdown of curtain wall and storefront shipments by replacement versus new construction in square feet of vision area, giving manufacturers and distributors a sharper read on where retrofit demand is offsetting weak new-build pipelines.
What This Means for Architects and Specifiers
The FGIA forecast lines up with other recent signals — including softer Dodge planning data outside the data center sector and a cautious architectural glass outlook from KMR — but it adds segment-level granularity that's directly actionable.
A few practical takeaways:
- Replacement work is the bridge to 2028. With new construction soft, manufacturers and glazing contractors should be aggressively positioning for retrofit-driven demand, especially in markets where local energy codes (NYC Local Law 97, Boston, Seattle) are forcing envelope upgrades.
- Storefront and site-fabricated windows still dominate volume. Despite all the industry attention on unitized curtain wall and high-performance IGUs, the bulk of non-residential vision area is still in storefront and site-built systems. Product roadmaps and rep training should reflect that reality.
- Skylight specifiers should expect tighter supply chains. A double-digit decline from 2023 levels means consolidation pressure on smaller skylight manufacturers, and specifiers should validate that selected products will still be supported through project closeout.
The Macro Headwinds Aren't Going Away
FGIA's earlier statistical review explicitly called out tariffs, inflation, and immigration as factors affecting the construction industry overall — and the fenestration industry specifically. That framing carries through to the 2026 update. Tariff exposure on aluminum extrusions, glass coatings, and hardware components remains a live variable for commercial fenestration manufacturers, and labor availability continues to constrain installer capacity even where demand exists.
The full study consists of three reports — the U.S. Industry Channel Distribution Report, the U.S. Industry Market Size Report, and the U.S. Industry Regional Statistical Review and Forecasts — and is available through the FGIA online store for $100 to members or $4,500 for non-members.
For building envelope professionals, the message from FGIA's data is clear: plan for a soft 2026 and 2027, but use the downturn to invest in code-readiness, retrofit capabilities, and the EPD and embodied-carbon documentation that will increasingly drive commercial spec decisions when the recovery does arrive.